This is from an email passed along to me; possibly it originated from the Union of Concerned Scientists

Subject: SSI Special Notice: NY Times Pop. Implosion Article

****************** SSI SPECIAL NOTICE ******************

The New York Times on Friday, July 10 featured a front-page article entitled "Population Implosion Worries a Graying Europe" by Michael Specter. The piece discusses the drop in European fertility rates below replacement level (2.1 children per woman) and the possible future ramifications of a society where older people substantially outnumber children. This change will affect virtually every public program, from health care to education to pension plans.

We thought SSI members would be interested in this article which, because of its length, will follow in a separate email message. Remember that the New York Times is syndicated nationwide and that stories in the Times are often picked up by other newspapers, so you may see this article surface in your local paper. If there is local coverage, consider sending a letter-to-the-editor discussing the importance of placing the European data within the context of trends in global population -- which is likely to continue growing until at least the second half of the 21st century, with nearly a doubling of population expected. The United Nations recently announced that the world population will pass 6 billion in July 1999.

In addition to a global perspective, it is also helpful to put the European data in a longer-term context. While the European fertility rate dropped below 1.6 by 1995 and is projected to continue to decline, the population of Europe will continue to grow through the year 2000 and will not begin any significant decline before 2025. Beyond 2025, projections are quite speculative, since they depend in large part on predicting the fertility rates of women who have not yet been born, as well as future migration patterns.

Below are the total fertility rates (TFR) and the actual and projected population sizes for Europe, the United States, Asia, Latin America, Africa, and the world through 2025 (in millions), according to the most recent UN medium-variant projections.

Region	1995 TFR	1995 Pop.	2000 Pop.	2025 Pop.
			(projected)	(projected)
Europe	1.57	728	729	701
US	2.05	267	278	332
Asia	2.84	3438	3689	4785
Latin Am.	2.93	477	515	690
Africa	5.71	719	820	1454
WORLD	2.96	5687	6091	8039

You may find it useful to refer to these data, as well as the below messages taken from the 3/19/98 SSI Info Update, "What Birth Dearth?" when responding to articles in your local newspaper. [For a copy of the "What Birth Dearth?" Update, send a message to ssi@ucsusa.org.]

MESSAGES FOR POLICYMAKERS AND THE MEDIA

-- The global population explosion is not over. Even if the United Nations' most optimistic projection were realized, world population growth would continue for more than four decades and would add another two billion people. Population growth compounds global warming, soil erosion, and other ecological problems across the globe.

-- While it is true that many industrialized countries are currently experiencing low fertility rates and that this trend in those countries can have significant policy implications, the current depiction of a "population implosion" is alarmist. There is ample time for those societies experiencing this decline to plan for the future and to make the appropriate policy adjustments.

-- Over 95 percent of population growth occurs in developing countries, many of which are struggling to support their current populations. Even with declining birth rates, by the middle of the next century at least two billion people will live in countries where water shortages may constrain food production and economic development.

-- Despite increases in contraceptive use, the need for family planning is still growing. The young age structure in developing countries means that rapidly increasing numbers of young people are entering their childbearing years and will need family planning services. Meanwhile, over 100 million married women in developing countries already have an unmet need for family planning.

-- American voluntary family planning programs have made a proven 30-year contribution to reducing population growth and poverty and enhancing human and environmental welfare around the world.. They are an important, positive, and cost- effective part of U.S. foreign policy.

[This Special Notice was authored by Fred Meyerson.]